HeyJaredAndrew Fox
Ground-truth conflict analysis from someone who's actually been there. As a former British paratrooper and Royal Military Academy Sandhurst lecturer, I'm one of the few academic researchers in the world who go to the front lines they write about.
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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 17
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 9, 2026
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Restoring the status quo in Hormuz is not a victory (opens the original)
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There is a lot of cheerleading in the usual circles about the US Navy’s partial success in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Everybody, calm down.To get a convoy through Hormuz on 1 September, the Americans had to fight. Their forces protected up to forty commercial vessels carrying some 18 million barrels of oil while fending off Iranian drones and an anti-ship missile. Before the war began on 28 February, ships made that passage without needing an American military operation organised around the
Live with Andrew Fox and Shana Meyerson - A Paratrooper and a Yogi Walk Into A Bar (opens the original)
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Get more from Andrew Fox in the Substack appAvailable for iOS and Android<a class="install-substack-app-embed-link" href="https://substack.com/app/app-store-redirect?utm_campai
Israel had the warnings. Why did the IDF arrive too late? (opens the original)
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Rumours about what Israel knew before 7 October are swirling again as its election campaign gathers pace. Given how poorly these rumours reflect upon Netanyahu, I doubt the timing is accidental, although political convenience tells us nothing conclusive about an allegation’s truth. The established record already demands an accounting. Israel collected warnings that, properly assessed, should have altered its defensive posture.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn
Palestine After the Two-State Solution (opens the original)
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The “two-state solution” has become a diplomatic answer that lets its advocates avoid the next question: how? Macron, Burnham, Carney and the rest appear to believe that simply saying “two-state solution” in the mirror three times will make it appear. Repeating the destination does very little for the Israeli who expects withdrawal from the West Bank to produce another 7 October, or the Palestinian who expects another peace process to leave him living under continued Israeli security control. Th
The Iran War is breaking the world order (opens the original)
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The war in Iran is accelerating the breakdown of the international order, and the Middle East is discovering how exposed it is. Governments that relied on American protection have suffered the consequences of an American war, while European partners jeopardise useful relationships with Israel. The damage extends to the international institutions that might otherwise help contain the resulting disputes. We are entering uncharted waters, with governments increasingly obliged to calculate what they
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