HeyJaredAlexandru Stefan Goghie
Macro, Money & Markets - A Weekly Breakdown. Your go-to source for in-depth analysis of global macro trends, monetary policy shifts, and market dynamics. Frequent insights decoding key developments shaping the economy and financial system.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 8
- Latest publication
- Sep 16, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 7, 2026
Latest issues
What a Fed rate hike could mean for AI infrastructure (opens the original)
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The prospect of a Fed rate hike has become a much more important variable for AI-related equities than it appeared only a few months ago. Markets are now pricing a meaningful probability of a 25-basis-point increase at today’s meeting, which would take the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% and represent the first rate increase since 2023. A Reuters poll conducted
Seasonal errors (opens the original)
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There is a quite a familiar pattern in bond markets around the end of summer. There are several components (or issues?) that have an impact on bond yields. We know for sure liquidity returns, issuance picks up, investors unwind positions accumulated during August, and yields can begin moving higher. September is therefore often described as a seasonal weak point for bonds. There is evidence for this pattern. ING has documented a tendency for developed market yields to rise in the two weeks follo
Merkor Research (opens the original)
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Starting today, I am launching a new paid research service called Merkor Research (https://merkor.org). Merkor Research will also become the name of this blog from now on.I am very happy with what I have achieved so far, but I feel that it is time to take the project one step further and, at least temporarily, move away from publishing under my own name. The blog will continue to feature the financial analysis and market commentary you have come to expect, but from today onward, Merkor will also
Say after me: Treasury buybacks are not YCC (opens the original)
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The recent move by the US Treasury to double the size of its long-end buyback operations has been interpreted as something considerably more consequential than what the mechanics actually suggest. With the 30-year Treasury yield reaching levels last seen in 2007, the announcement that Treasury would increase purchases of longer-dated securities to as much as $4 billion per operation was quickly framed as an attempt by Washington to put a floor under the bond market, influence the long end of the
Yen-tervention (opens the original)
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Financial markets almost instinctively interpret every episode of FX intervention through the same framework. A currency weakens beyond a politically uncomfortable level, authorities intervene, markets briefly reverse, and analysts immediately begin debating whether the intervention will “work”. Or worse, it is considered a foreign bailout. The discussion usually revolves around the size of official reserves. Japan’s latest intervention has generated precisely this type of commentaries after th
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