HeyJaredAlan Longbon MBA
My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them using country ETFs and contract for difference (CFDs)
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Sep 19, 2026
Latest issues
A Record High Worth Less: What July's FHFA House Price Index Says About the Real Estate Cycle (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="820" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z1yE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fead98d-a2db-47c1-9329-9fa5d9041132_1200x820.png"
The Dollar, Gold and the Two-Year Echo (opens the original)
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SummaryMr Balan’s chart said the US dollar index (DXY) had bottomed and would rise until the second quarter of 2026, and that gold would weaken. The dollar made one last, marginally lower low of 96.2 on 27 January, then rose 5.6% to 101.6 on 24 June, the last full week of the second quarter. It stands at 101.4 today. Gold did the opposite, but only from January. It rose 59% in the second half of 2025, peaked with the dollar’s low, and has since fallen by about a quarter to roughly $4,125 an ounc
The Five Per Cent Line: When Rising Yields Stop Helping Shares (opens the original)
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SummaryShares and bond yields are moving together, and strongly. Over the past year the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield have risen side by side. The 52-week correlation between them stands at +0.81, a level reached in only about one week in twenty-five since 1985. Mr Robert Balan’s charts show that this positive relationship has been the rule when the 10-year yield sits between about 4% and 5%, and that above 5% it has usually turned negative.The line has already been crossed. Mr Balan’s
Currencies at the Top of the Cycle: The Dollar, the Australian Dollar and the Euro (opens the original)
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SummaryThe dollar moves in three phases, not one. Around the last real estate bust the US dollar did three different things. It drifted lower in the late boom, jumped sharply in the credit event, and eased again once the Federal Reserve came to the rescue. The 1990 bust was milder, but the Australian dollar still ended it lower. In 2008 the Australian dollar rose from 75 to 98 US cents, fell to 61 cents in just over three months, and then climbed to $1.10. A forecast that says only “the dollar w
A New High in October? Testing the “Monetization Surplus” (opens the original)
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SummaryThe main signal is real, and it is improving. Over the past year, Treasury debt held by the public has grown by 7.4% and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by 2.1%. That leaves a gap of −5.3 percentage points between the two growth rates, much narrower than the −13.6 points of August 2025. The gap has narrowed by 3.4 points in the past thirteen weeks. Since 2003, a rise that fast has been followed by an average S&P 500 gain of 4.9% over the next quarter, and the index was higher a quarte
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