HeyJaredAgriView
Reflections on agricultural economics matters in South Africa and the world.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 26
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Sep 10, 2026
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South Africa’s 2026-27 wheat imports may increase (opens the original)
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Yesterday, September 29, 2026, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee released its second 2026-27 winter crop production estimates. From the headlines, we learned that South Africa’s 2026-27 winter crop is estimated at 2.67 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year. This figure comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. But if we set aside all other crops, which are up notably from the 2025-26 season because of increased area planted, and focus on wheat, the picture is worrying. South Af
Overnight rains help, but the drought remains a possibility in the 2026-27 season (opens the original)
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Overnight rains across South Africa help farmers prepare for the start of the 2026-27 crop season in October.Still, the likelihood of an El Niño drought occurrence remains.SubscribeShare
A note about South Africa’s maize harvest process (opens the original)
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We are nearing the start of the 2026-27 agricultural season in South Africa. In fact, some farmers have started preparing their fields, and mid-October marks the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, some farms in the western regions of our country are still in the final stages of the 225-26 season. I was just looking at the maize producer deliveries data. Between May 2026 and September 18, 2026, about 14.9 million tonnes of maize have been delivered to commercial silos. We expect more volumes in
El Niño threatens South Africa’s summer grain harvest (opens the original)
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Yesterday, after releasing a note with a few charts on the expected El Niño, I went to Newzroom Afrika, a TV channel, to add a few points about what I was communicating. My input was in two folds. One, while we are concerned about the expected dryness, there should be no immediate panic among households in South Africa. We have plenty of food supplies from the 2025-26 season, which was a period of abundance in agricultural production. The evidence is clear in food price inflation, which was 0.7%
Some charts on El Niño (opens the original)
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The El Niño forecasts for the next summer crop season are stronger. In the chart below, the probability is effectively at 100%. <img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="453" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ilDq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_
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