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- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 20
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
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- Jul 6, 2026
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Victorian DemosAU poll has Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing, but they remain ahead (opens the original)
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Two months before the Victorian election, a DemosAU poll has Labor narrowing the Coalition’s two-party lead to 52–48 from 55–45 in August. In two federal polls that were taken about the same time as the previous federal Newspoll, the total primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 48% in YouGov (steady) and 47% in Morgan (up 0.5). The right vote was steady at 49% in the previous Newspoll. Newspoll aggregate data for July to September indicates that One Nation has become dominant in Queen
NZ election poll watch: minor parties gain as Labour and National slide (opens the original)
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Six weeks out from the November 7 election, the latest 1News Verian poll (conducted September 23–27 from a sample of 1,004 voters) recorded a fall for the major parties and gains for most minors: This was a record high for the Greens in a 1News Verian poll. The combined votes for the right (National, ACT and NZ First) continued to lead the combined vote for the left (Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori) by an unchanged three-point margin. With Opportunity on 6% in this poll, it would have the balanc
Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress (opens the original)
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In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23. In his forecast model, Democrats are the clear favourites to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives. If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House
Coalition retains clear lead in Victorian Resolve poll, while federal polls are mixed (opens the original)
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Two and a half months before the November 28 Victorian state election, a Resolve poll has the Coalition retaining a clear lead over Labor. Labor is likely to lose the election, but it’s unclear whether the Coalition will be able to govern in majority or need support from One Nation. This week’s federal polls were mixed, with Resolve having the combined One Nation and Coalition primary vote up two points to 51%, while it was down 1.5 point to 46.5% in Morgan. Morgan had the Greens up 1.5 points t
Democrats’ chances of gaining control of Congress at US midterms depend on Iran war (opens the original)
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In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are more likely than not to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and strongly favoured to gain control of the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is close to -20. If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, possibly with huge losses. However, if the disrup
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