HeyJaredACEMAXX-ANALYTICS’s Newsletter
macroeconomic comments, analysis, observations, short interviews and book reviews and more...
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Euro Area and The Beleaguered Consumer Confidence (opens the original)
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ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that euro-area growth had been resilient and that consumer confidence had “rebounded from the low levels in the spring.”But the European Commission’s September flash estimate quickly told a different story, showing consumer confidence falling 1.0 percentage point to –16.5. Rather than a sudden new cliff, this dip represents a fragile reversal—erasing four months of tentative improvement and dragging the indicator back away from its long-
Germany’s «Gemeinschaftsdiagnose» and Macroeconomics (opens the original)
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The Joint Economic Forecast «Gemeinschaftsdiagnose» analyses and forecasts the economic situation in Germany.The forecasts are prepared twice a year, in the spring and in the fall. The forecasts from the Joint Economic Forecast (GD) serve as a guide for the German federal government’s projections. The GD is a joint research project involving several economic research institutes.The Fall 2026 <a href="https://gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/2026/09/24/gemeinschaftsdiagn
Big Tech Debt and UST Yields (opens the original)
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The AI arms race is devouring astronomical sums for data centers, chips, and energy infrastructure — intensifying global competition for liquidity and putting pressure on the bond market. This raises an obvious question: is the boom in AI spending “crowding out” other financial activity, with tech giants and AI companies competing with the government for capital in a modern version of the classic crowding-out effect?Regardless of that, it can be stated (Econ 101) that there is no fixed pool of “
Diesel Export Ban: Right Anger, Wrong Instrument (opens the original)
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Whether or not Washington actually goes ahead, the debate over a US diesel export ban is instructive. European diesel futures jumped while crude barely moved. That tells us the scarcity sits in refining and distillate capacity, not in crude.The political pressure behind a ban is hardly irrational. When a geopolitical shock sends energy prices soaring, markets allocate scarce fuel by purchasing power, and windfall rents accrue to refiners and traders. The resul
Paris vis-à-vis “Double Tightening” (opens the original)
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Reuters reads France’s 10-year spread over Germany, now 104bp and the first triple-digit reading since 2012, mainly as a verdict on fiscal and political credibility. Both matter. But the piece skips the institutional question underneath: France borrows in a currency it does not issue.France is not the US, but it is not a household either. The Treasury issues euro debt; the ECB issues the euro. French bonds therefore carry a credit and liqu
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