HeyJaredA Letter from Paul
Practical, jargon-free description of what is going on in international affairs and financial markets from the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of a global macro hedge fund, Kate Capital. And the price is right...free.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
- Latest publication
- Sep 25, 2026
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- Jul 5, 2026
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Cracks Form (opens the original)
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Not investment advice. A lot of small things are adding up to a potentially big thing—the mighty, seemingly indestructible US equity market is beginning to show fissures, even while it hit yearly highs early this week.Here are the data points that are catching my attention.Year-to-date, equity indexes are up over 12%, fueled by a rise in earnings. Earnings have been driven disproportionately by two sectors—energy and AI. Energy is due to the war and AI is due to strong demand, the marking up of
What We Know (opens the original)
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Not investment advice.I am traveling today, so a brief note.We know oil is not flowing as much as it once was, demand is relatively price-insensitive, and the real price of oil is still low, as you can see below, well below the price when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Ebbing Asset Returns (opens the original)
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Not investment advice.The markets did the Fed’s job for them. This week, a spike in oil prices triggered a spike in bond yields, which now means the market is discounting a series of central bank rate hikes. All officials need to do is follow the path laid out for them, which is a series of hikes. For stocks, this means the path to higher prices is via strong earnings because PEs won’t go up and may fall. Stocks with weak earnings might suffer some pain, while those at the center of the AI and e
He Doesn’t Have the Votes (opens the original)
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Not investment advice. Warsh is a lawyer and a politician, not an investor or economist, and after a few months it shows. The market is now whipsawing on his pronouncements rather than the solid economic analysis one looks for from a Fed chief. This week Waller, who was also up for the top job, publicly broke with Warsh and let us know that if next week’s CPI print comes in at expectations, both he and likely the majority of the committee will not vote to hike.Warsh says odd things, and his econ
Notes from the Road (opens the original)
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Not investment advice. I am traveling and keeping an eye on things. Here is what I see.The most likely scenario is that AI works and we are in a productivity boom. Nvidia just reminded us of that. That is generally bullish for stocks, and can be supportive for bonds as well, because productivity lifts profits and should lower costs over time. That is the medium-term secular picture.Many thoughtful investors are concerned about AI. Predictions on X and other forums of an imminent crash are freque
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