HeyJaredA Failure To Disagree
"A Failure to Disagree" is the goal, but not the method. Thoughts on the philosophy of science, the science of psychology, the psychology of decisions, and the decisions that experts make under real world uncertainty.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 4
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- Sep 29, 2026
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- Jul 11, 2026
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Adaptive Expertise is Not a Skill (opens the original)
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Recently I’ve been contemplating how to use Tactical Decision Games (TDGs) to train expertise in new domains. For the uninitiated, TDGs are a type of scenario training game revived and refined in the Marines by John Schmitt1 to teach the new tactical doctrine that was being established in the wake of the failures of the Vietnam war. While principally used to train officers in tactics, TDGs have a premise simple enough that they likely have a history as old as Homo Sapiens, with applications exte
Stories as Context Sensitive Models [re-post] (opens the original)
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[Authors note: I originally published this on my first week on Substack. I decided to clean it up and repost it for this who may have missed it the first time around.]<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="735" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_
Personality as low granularity decision-making (opens the original)
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A novel hypothesis for your consideration; the same cognitive process which underlies personality also underlies expert decision-making.If this hypothesis were true, would it be surprising? It would imply personality is more like a skill than an inbuilt trait. But how can that be? Can personality be taught? And would this overlap imply some personalities are more “expert” than others?There is a danger in hypothesizing outside of one’s field. There is a good chance I get things wrong, and expose
Frequently Asked Questions on Expertise (opens the original)
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Professionally, I research and train expertise. Somewhat less professionally I write about it on Substack. I typically work in domains like medicine, military tactics, law enforcement, and petrochemical safety, but I also explore implications for sports, music, video games, and recently mathematics. Because of this, I receive a lot of questions about the nature of expertise which I thought could be cleared up with a FAQ.It is important to note my background. I come from a tradition called <a hre
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